Criciuma vs Boa
Criciuma nearly provided us with a massive price winner last week, but despite the draw on Friday night they are still in second place and lighting up the Brazilian Serie B.
I say lighting up, because their games average a stunning 3.89 goals per game!
In 29-year-old striker Ze Carlos, they have by far the most prolific striker in the division, and one that is already being linked with a top flight move. The forward has only ever played eight games in Brazil's top tier and was even farmed out on loan to Japanese side Gamba Osaka a few years back (where he only experienced 19 minutes of game-time) but now everything has clicked for him and he has scored 11 goals in just eight games so far this term.
The division's second-highest scorers are on six goals each, which helps you appreciate just how impressive this guy's run of form has been.
Tonight's opponents Boa have assumed the same sort of position that they did last season, one of mid-table anonymity, but they also average a decent amount of goals in their fixtures, at 2.78 per game.
While we can expect our hosts Criciuma to win tonight's game, the 1.5 on offer isn't particularly attractive. What is far more tempting is the 1.7 on the over 2.5 goals, especially when we bear in mind that they've notched 14 in five home games - covering the bet just before taking into account any goals conceded.
Similarly, they have seen only one of their nine fixtures this season go under 2.5, so this price seems simply too generous. Get on it, quick!